It makes little sense for Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) stock to remain at $7.50 or so per share.
As you may know, the company is working to bring Covaxin, developed by India-based Bharat Biotech, to North America. Over time, though, it has become clearer that this company’s Covid-19 vaccine gambit has slim chances of paying off for investors.
If it fails to get approval, whether in the U.S. or Canada shares will quickly head back to $1 per share and below. However, it may be months until this ultimately happens since the company has faced many setbacks so far bringing Covaxin to the U.S. and Canada. It’s clinging to life on the hope of some astoundingly good luck.
That is, there’s still enough in play to suggest its Covaxin catalyst has a chance of playing out. It won’t be “game over” until several factors I’ll discuss in a moment are no longer on its side.
Just because the risk of it cratering in the near term is slim as well doesn’t mean you should buy it. Buying this now is a lot like trying to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. There may be room for it to pop once more, but going long now exposes you to a lot of downside risk.
Why Some Investors Remain Bullish on OCGN Stock
I still believe Ocugen has little chance of finding commercial success in North America with Covaxin. At the same time, I can see why some remain bullish this catalyst will play out.
It didn’t get EUA (emergency use authorization) from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), but as long as its application for full approval is still pending OCGN stock still gets the benefit of the doubt from some investors.
Also, it’s still technically in the running for EUA in Canada. I believe it’s doubtful that Canada will save the day, but investors buying the stock on headlines instead of the numbers will likely perceive potential Canadian revenue as something that justifies the stock’s current $1.53 billion market capitalization.
To top it all off, some may believe that as the push for vaccination requirements heats up, the subsequent rise in demand will somehow benefit Ocugen.
Even as it’ll likely be vaccines that are already fully FDA-approved, like the Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) vaccine, that have the most to gain from vaccine mandates in the near future.
Taken together, these factors will likely help OCGN stock hold steady from here whether they are rooted in reality, or are misconceptions.
Its ultimate collapse may still be many months away. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should consider betting on OCGN an asymmetrical wager.
Given the difficulties of timing stocks, it’s not worth it to try to buy it ahead of it facing its “moment of truth” in hope of profiting from its last big pop.
Hope Will Inevitably Fade Among Ocugen Bulls
It’s only a matter of time before the factors mentioned above cease to prop up the price of OCGN stock. With regards to FDA approval, our Larry Ramer recently detailed that, with its failure to prepare a U.S. trial for Covaxin, U.S. regulators will likely reject the candidate for full approval.
When this becomes undeniable, expect shares to take a tumble.
Same goes for when the company reaches its “moment of truth” when it comes to Canadian approval. If the U.S. says “no dice,” chances are America’s neighbor to the north will take a hard pass as well.
Even if it remains on the path to approval in both nations, its vaccine mandate angle will likely fade as well for a pretty simple reason.
Assuming it is still in the running for approval, it won’t be until late 2022 at the earliest it becomes available for use domestically. In the meantime, the existing crop of vaccines will benefit from a demand boost caused by widespread employer vaccination requirements.
Once any or all of these “moments of truth” happen, expect OCGN stock to make a rapid descent back to where it traded before the Covaxin catalyst emerged. In other words, prices well below $1 per share.
Losses Are Coming
There may be enough in play to keep Ocugen shares at elevated prices. If it makes progress with its quest for FDA approval, or with its Canadian EUA application, admittedly this may give shares another jolt.As mentioned above, though, buying this today to pocket a quick gain seems like a case of risking a lot to gain a little.
It may take time for it to experience its ultimate collapse. But as its still a matter of if rather than when? Avoid the risk of seeing a double-digit percentage decline. Stay away from OCGN stock.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, a contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.